297 | Breaking Analysis | AI Factories Face a Long Payback Period but Trillions in Upside
Our latest forecast indicates that it will take a decade or more for AI factory operators and model builders to reach breakeven on their massive capital outlays. Our projections call for nearly $4T in cumulative CAPEX outlays by 2030, with just under $2T in cumulative AI revenue generated in that timeframe. We have the crossover point occurring early next decade (2032 on a run rate basis) then gains far surpassing initial investments by the middle part of the 2030s. While such projections are invariably subject to constant revision, we believe the size and speed of the initial investments, combined with the challenges of profitably monetizing AI at scale, will require patient capital and long term thinking to realize durable business results.
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