Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang repeatedly stated during the Q2 2026 earnings call that the top four hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta) would spend around $600 billion in annual capex — a figure he said had doubled in just two years and was fueling the current AI infrastructure build-out. However, earnings calls and analyst coverage from these hyperscalers show their combined recent capex guidance falls short of $600 billion, though the pace and scale are rapidly climbing due to AI demand.
Jensen Huang’s Capex Claims
- Jensen referenced “$600 billion per year” for the top four hyperscalers multiple times in the call, citing Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta as examples leading this monumental investment in AI infrastructure.
- This figure was framed as representative of just the hyperscaler leaders and of a doubling in annual spending compared to two years prior.
Hyperscaler Actual Capex Statements
Here’s what each hyperscaler publicly committed for 2025 (calendar or fiscal as relevant):
- Amazon (AWS): CFO stated quarterly capex was running at $31.4 billion, annualizing above $118 billion with most aimed at AI and cloud infrastructure for AWS.
- Google (Alphabet): Announced a major boost in 2025 capex, raising guidance to $85 billion due to cloud and AI infrastructure demand.
- Microsoft: Reaffirmed plans for approximately $80 billion in 2025 capex, with some reports (including Jefferies) later suggesting a number as high as $121 billion for fiscal 2026.
- Meta: CEO and CFO indicated 2025 capex guidance of $64–72 billion (some estimates center on $70 billion), and expect further growth for fiscal 2026 to ~$30 billion above that.
- Combined: Analyst synthesis (Jefferies, Investing.com) for the “Big 3 + Meta + Oracle” projected $417 billion in cloud capex for 2025, up 64% from the prior year and nearly triple 2023.
Juxtaposition and Theories on the Delta
Jensen’s $600 billion annual capex assertion notably overshoots analysts’ (including ours) and hyperscalers’ own reported figures by close to $200 billion.
Potential Reasons for the Discrepancy
- Run Rate vs. Forward Guidance: Jensen could be annualizing quarterly spikes and extrapolating future run rates, whereas companies report planned or committed spend, which may understate “real” execution if momentum persists.
- Jensen knows something we don’t know: Jensen could be sharing internal data based on hyperscaler forecasts, on which he said they have pretty good visibility.
- Global and Supplier Inclusion: Perhaps Jensen interprets U.S. hyperscaler capex as a proxy for global infrastructure spend, potentially adding non-disclosed investments or associated supply chain buildouts (such as colocation, power, and facility upgrades).
- Competitive Narrative: By inflating the combined capex, Nvidia signals the urgency and scale of the AI race — potentially to reinforce its own leadership role and justifications for unprecedented revenue expectations.
- Scope Ambiguity: Jensen may include broader infrastructure capex, such as networking, logistics, buildings, and equipment not strictly limited to “cloud/AI/data center” spend shown in hyperscaler guidance and analyst calculations.
Analytical Delta
- Company filings, earnings calls, and analysts put the 2025 capex for the Big 4 (plus Oracle) in the $400–450 billion range. Jensen’s repeated $600 billion figure is likely an optimistic projection, not yet substantiated by hyperscalers’ official statements.
- The delta (~$150–200 billion) raises questions around how capex forecasts are counted, reported, and interpreted for market modeling. If Jensen’s broader numbers include associated supplier investments and non-cloud projects, it reveals how definitions matter amid AI enthusiasm.
Summary Table
| Statement Origin | Capex Estimate 2025 (Billions USD) | Noted Scope |
| Jensen/Nvidia call | $600 | Unclear; “top 4 hyperscalers”; implied broad infra |
| Analyst composite | $417 | Big 4 + Oracle; direct cloud/infrastructure spend |
| Individual calls | ~$65–$120 each | Official earnings guidance per company |
Conclusion
Jensen Huang’s surprising $600 billion hyperscaler capex claim at Nvidia’s Q2 2026 earnings call is not validated by the leading hyperscalers’ own 2025 guidance and analyst calculations, which place aggregate spend closer to $400–$450 billion. The gap likely arises from both scope ambiguity (what actually “counts” as hyperscaler capex) and forward-looking narrative intent, as Nvidia seeks to position itself at the center of an industrial-scale AI boom.
Image: Grok
